Another election this year? Historical perspectives on the hung parliament
Richard Toye |
Gordon Brown is perfectly entitled to remain as Prime Minister and attempt to secure support for his programme in the House of Commons, as Stanley Baldwin did after losing his majority in the general election of 1923. The paradox of the current situation is that the parliamentary arithmetic favours a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, but David Cameron cannot guarantee Nick Clegg what he wants - electoral reform. Gordon Brown is willing to grant a referendum on electoral reform, but the votes in the Commons are insufficient for a stable Liberal-Labour coalition.
Gordon Brown is in the position Ted Heath was in February 1974 - down but not (yet) out. After losing the premiership, Heath survived to fight another election as Conservative leader, and was only removed by his party after he lost it. The precedents set by the general elections of 1923 and 1924, 1950 and 1951, and February and October 1974 suggest that a second general election will occur before the end of this year. This election would probably see the Liberal Democrat vote fall, as they are relatively less able than the other main parties to bear the costs of another campaign in a short space of time.
Please note: Views expressed are those of the author.- Tags:
- Power and politics
References
Governing without majorities (pdf file), Democratic Audit General Election Briefing, No.1
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